*Inception: 01/04/2017 | *Annualized | All Data as of: 12/31/2018
Top 10 Current Holdings by Cumulative Return
Top 5 Sectors by Cumulative Return
“Baby, It’s Cold Outside” -Frank Loesser
Month in Review: Frank Loesser wrote “Baby, It’s Cold Outside” in 1944 to sing with his wife, Lynn Garland, to indicate to their party guests when it was time to leave, and investors took the same cue in December.(1) On average since 1950, December is the best month for the S&P 500 according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac.(2) That was not the case for 2018. The S&P 500 Total Return Index was down -9.72% while our Equity Trend Model was down -5.03%. The Equity Trend Model managed to stay positive for the year up 0.67% while the S&P Total Return Index was down -5.18%.
All of the positions in the model posted negative returns for the month. The three worst performing positions were Accenture PLC (ACN): -14.29%, CSX Corp (CSX): -14.17% and JPMorgan Chase and Co. (JPM): -12.20%.
Ins and Outs: The model closed four positions at the beginning of the month – Apple Inc. (AAPL), Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. (ADM), TJX Companies (TJX) and CVS Health Corp (CVS). It should be noted that the model has built a large cash position since the S&P 500 dipped below its 200 Day Moving Average. Typically, we want to invest those funds in Treasury ETFs with the idea of taking very little risk during a market downturn. We were cautious to make that move so far as the yield curve flattened and inverted. Looking forward, the model will likely have more positions to sell, and we are confident that we have found a place to park assets until it warms up on Wall Street. The model will continue to shy away from equities and not re-invest proceeds from any closed positions in stocks until the S&P 500 closes above its 200 Day Moving Average.
About the model: Adams Wealth Management’s Equity Trend Model is a quantitative, trend-following model portfolio that invests in up to 25 individual equities. Our rules-driven model takes a risk-on/risk-off approach to investing focusing on stocks that are appreciating in price as the broader market trends higher. When the broader market is trending lower, the model will invest in fixed-income ETFs (exchange-traded funds) or a basket of fixed-income ETFs. The investment objective of this model is growth and may not be suitable for all investors. For purposes of comparison, this report uses the S&P 500 Total Return Index. For more information about this model, please read our disclosures.
This information provided is an investment model and does not reflect actual client(s) performance. This model may not be suitable for all investors. Adams Wealth Management seeks to provide investments suitable for all of our clients. As a result, many if not all of our clients will own varying allocations to this and/or other models. Clients with different objects have different results portrayed from this model.
The information provided is net of fees (1.5%). In addition, the results of this model reflect divided payments and other income from investments made.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Total Return Index (S&P 500 Total Return) measures the total return including distributions of the Standard and Poor’s 500 Index (S&P 500). The S&P 500 is an unmanaged, market capitalization weighted index of 500 widely held stocks. The index is composed of 500 constituent companies and is often used as a benchmark for the U.S. stock market. Please note that investors cannot directly invest in an index.
All investing involves risk, including the potential for loss of principal. There is no guarantee this model will be successful.
1 – en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baby,_It%27s_Cold_Outside
2 – jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/180664385488/december-almanac-top-performing-sp-500-month [11/30/18]