October 2018 Equity Trend Report

 Equity Trend Stays Positive for the Year Despite Market Sell Off

Month in Review: After a strong third quarter, the market started the fourth quarter with a large sell off. The S&P 500 Total Return Index fell -7.17%, and the Equity Trend Model did worse down -9.32%. The Equity Trend Model only had one position posting a positive return: Nextera Energy Inc (NEE) on a month-to-date basis with a return of 2.92%. The worst performing positions on a month-to-date basis were Square, Inc. (SQ): -25.82%, NVIDIA Corp (NVDA): -24.98%, and First Data Corp (FDC): -23.42%. The model’s winners and losers offer a good insight into what happened during the sell off as investors took profits from Technology (SQ and NVDA) as it had been the best performing sector in the market during the year and looked to more defensive sectors to invest like Utilities (NEE). The sell off also extended to the Energy Sector as evidence by the month-to-date performance in Valero Energy Corp (VLO): -19.92% and Marathon Oil Corp. (MRO): -18.43% which rounded out the top five worst performing holdings in the model month-to-date.

Despite the poor start to the fourth quarter, the Equity Trend Model stayed positive year-to-date and on a one year basis up 4.98% and 6.75% respectively. Furthermore, the model is still outperforming the S&P 500 Total Return Index by 7.29% since inception on a cumulative return basis (30.99% vs. 23.70%).

Ins and Outs: The model did not exit or enter any new positions for the month. With that being said, the model’s rules based approach looks at the value of the S&P 500 Index compared to the index’s 200 Day Moving average at the end of the month to decide if the proceeds from any exited positions during the next month should be re-invested in stocks. Since the S&P 500 closes the month below it’s 200 Day Moving Average, the model will not be re-investing those proceeds in the stock market for the next month.

About the model: Adams Wealth Management’s Equity Trend Model is a quantitative, trend-following model portfolio that invests in up to 25 individual equities. Our rules-driven model takes a risk-on/risk-off approach to investing focusing on stocks that are appreciating in price as the broader market trends higher. When the broader market is trending lower, the model will invest in fixed-income ETFs (exchange-traded funds) or a basket of fixed-income ETFs. The investment objective of this model is growth and may not be suitable for all investors. For purposes of comparison, this report uses the S&P 500 Total Return Index. For more information about this model, please read our disclosures.

Disclosures

This information provided is an investment model and does not reflect actual client(s) performance. This model may not be suitable for all investors. Adams Wealth Management seeks to provide investments suitable for all of our clients. As a result, many if not all of our clients will own varying allocations to this and/or other models. Clients with different objects have different results portrayed from this model.

The information provided is net of fees (1.5%). In addition, the results of this model reflect divided payments and other income from investments made.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Total Return Index (S&P 500 Total Return) measures the total return including distributions of the Standard and Poor’s 500 Index (S&P 500). The S&P 500 is an unmanaged, market capitalization weighted index of 500 widely held stocks. The index is composed of 500 constituent companies and is often used as a benchmark for the U.S. stock market. Please note that investors cannot directly invest in an index.

All investing involves risk, including the potential for loss of principal. There is no guarantee this model will be successful.